Ubhubhane

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Ubhubhane igama elisuselwa esiGrikhini, lichaza ukuqubuka kwesifo esithelelanayo esesihambe amazwe ahlukene nezindawo ezahlukene. Ukubhebhetheka ngokushesha kwesifo ebantwini abaningi abasendaweni eyodwa esikhathini esifishane kubizwa ngobhubhane lwendawana.[1] Bese kuba khona isifo esithelele abantu abayisibalo esaziwayo, lolu akulona ubhubhane. Isifo esithelelanayo esinesibalo abathelelekile abaziwayo esifana nomkhuhlane wokushintsha kwezikhathi zonyaka azibalwa kubhubhane ngoba zivela ngesikhathi esisodwa ezindaweni ezahlukene emhlabeni kunokuthi zibhebhetheke emhlabeni wonke.

Incazelo nezigaba[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Ubhubhane isifo esithelelanayo esiqala ezweni elilodwa sibhebhetheke kwamanye amazwe.[2] Ukuze isifo kuzothiwa siwubhubhane, kufanele kube isifo esibhebhetheke emazweni amaningi futhi kube isifo esithelelanayo/ Umzekelo; isifo somdlavuza sibulala abantu abaningi emhlabeni kodwa akuthiwa ubhubhane ngoba asithelelani.[3]

Isigaba sokuqala senzeka lapho okuqala khona ukutholakala kwabantu abanesifo. Uma kungenziwa isibonelo nge-COVID-19, kungashiwo isikhathi la okwakusagula khona abantu abayidlanzana.

Isigaba sesibili ilapho okubonakala khona isiffo emphakathini.[4] Ilapho okubonakala khona ukuthelelana kwabantu kuphinde kulokhu kutheleleka abasha.

Isigaba sesithathu ilapho ukubhebhetheka kwesifo sekuthotshisiwe noma kungasekho muntu othelelekayo.

Ukuphatheka[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Ziningi izinto amazwe angazenza uma kuqubuka uubhubhane. Ngo 2005 isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-World Health Organisation(WHO) yasungula indlela yokumelana neziffo emazweni onke i-International Health Regulations(IHR), lokhu kwakwenzelwa ukuvikela, nokuphathwa kwezifo ezingahle zithutheleke kwamanye amazwe.[5] ngaphezu kwalokho i-WHO yenze uhlelo lwecebo lokumelana nobhubhane oluyimikhuhlane. Lolu hlelo lwashicilelwa ngo-1999 okokuqala lase luphinda lubhekwa futhi ngo-2005 nango-2009.[6] Izinhlelo eziningi ezaazibekelwe ukubhekana ne-COVID-19 zadalula kwi-IHR yango-2005 nasekuzilungiseleleeni kwe-WHO.

Sekube nezinkulumo ngezindlela okumele zisetshenziwe ezizosiza amazwe akwazi ukuthola iziguli eziningi zisuka nje ngaphambi kokuzibeka zodwa bese ziyalashwa, lezo zindlela (ukuhlola, ukwelapha, ukulandelela)[7]. Emveni kwalokho kube sekulandelelwa bonke abantu abake bahlangana nalo ogulayo, bese nabo bebekwa bodwa. Lendlelaa yokwenza idunyiswe indlela ebasebenzele ngayo emazweni okubalwa kuwo i-South Korea neSingapore, yixe lezi zizwe zaqala ukulungiselelaa into efana nalena emfeni kobhubhane lwe-SARS.[8]

Ukuuqhhelelana nomphakathi enye yezindlela okuhloswe ukwehliswa ukuthelelana ngokuvimba ukuthi abantu bengasondelani ukuze kwehliswe amathuba okuthelelana ngezifo ezithelelanayo. Umphathi we-WHO uDkt Michael J Ryan, ekhuluma nabezindaba kuNdasa(Mashi) ka-2019, uthe ukuziqhelelanisa noomphakathi indlela yesikhashana okungehliswa ukubhebhetheka kwaleli gciwane iphinde isuse umthwalo kwabezempilo, kodwa ngeke iliqede leli gciwane. Kuiza imali eningi ukwenza lokhu futhi kumele kwenziwe kanye neminye imizamo.[9]

Ubhubhane lwamanje[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Isandulela ngculazi nengculazi[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Indaba ephelele: Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Yize i-WHO isebenzisa igama elichaza ubhubhane lwendawo uma ichaza isandulela ngculazi. Kusukela ngo-2018, balinganiiselwa kumamiliyoni angu-37.9 abantu abanesandulela ngculazi emhlabeni.[10] kufe abantu abalinganiselwa ku-770 000, bebulawa ingculazi ngo-2018.[11] Okwamanje i- Sub-Saharan Africa iyona ndawo enabantu abaningi abathelelekayo. Ngo-2018 bebelinganiselwa emaphesentini angu-61 abathelelekile kulendawo.

Amagciwane ohlobo lwekhorona[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Amagciwane ohlobo lwekhorona angamagcciwane awumndeni omkhulu wamagciwane abanga ukugula okusuka emkhuhlaneni omncane kuya ezifeni ezinamandla ezifana ne-Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) ne-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). Uhlobo olusha lwalamagciwane i-(SARS-COV-2) idala i-COVID-19.[12] Ezinye izinhlobo zalamagciwane zisusuka ezilwaneni zingene ebantwini. Uphenyo olujulile luthole ukuthi i-SARS-COV yangena ebantwini ngamakati, bese kuthi i-MERS-CoV yangena ebantwini ngamakameli. Khukhona ezinye izinhlobo zalamagciwane ezingakangeni ebantwini ezisabhebhetheka ezilwaneni kuphela.[13][14]  

Uhlobo olusha lwegciwane lwekhorona oluquuke e- Wuhan, esifundazweni sase-Hubei, eShayina ngoZibandlela (Disemba) ka-2019 seludale uhlobo olusha lwesifo esidala kube nzima ukuphefumula lesi sifo i-COVID-19. Isigugu sesikhungo semfundo ephakeme i-John Hopkins, sithe i-COVID-19 ihlasele amazwe angu-200, amazwe ahlaselekee kakhulu kubalwa kuwo i- United States, i-central China, i-western Europe ne Iran[15]. Mhla zingu-11 KuNdasa(Mashi) 2020, isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-WHO ibike ukuthi i-COVID-19 ubhubhane[16][17]. Kusukela mhla zingu-23 kuMbasa(Ephreli) 2020, isibala sabantu abathelelwe i-COVID-19 besifika kumamiliyoni angu-2.63 emhlabeni wonke, esabashonile besingu-184,249 bese isibalo sabantu abasindile besimi ku-722,055.[18]

Uqubuko olubonakalayo[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Umalaleveva[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Umalaleveva usabalele ezindaweni ezinesifuthefuthe noma ezishisayo, kubalwa kuzo ingxeye yamazwe aseMelika, i-Asia ne-Afrika. Unyaka nonyaka kunabantu abalinganiselwa ku-350 kuya ku 500 wamamiliyoni abathola umalaleveva.[19] Ukungazweli imishayanguzo sekuthanda ukuba inkinga ekwelapheni umalaleveva esikhathini samanje ngoba lesi sehlo sesithanda ukuba yinto ejwayelekile, ngaphandle kwe-artemisinins [20] Umalaleveva wake wayisifo esivamile e-Yurophu naseNyakatho neMelika, lapho ongasabonwa khona.[xxiii] Umalaleveva kungenzeka ukuthi waba nomthelela ekuwiseni umbuso wamaRoma.[21][22] Lesi sifo saduma ngokuba “imfiva yaseRoma”[23] isifo segazi i-Plasmodium falciparum saba inkinga enkulu kwababethumba amazwe nakubantu bendawo ngesikhathi ifika eMelika kanye nokudayiswa kwezigqila.[24]

Umkhuhlane wase-Spain[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Umkhuhlane wase-Spain (1918 kuya ku 1920) wathelela abantu abangama miliyoni angu-500 emhlabeni wonke jikelele,[xxvii] lapho kubalwa nabantu baseziqhingini zase-Pacific nasezwenikazi leqhwa i-Arctic, wabulala abantu abalinganiselwa kuma miliyoni angu-20 kuya kwangu-100.[25][26][27] Esikhathinii esiningi uma kuqubuka imikhukhlane ivamise ukubulala abantwana nazaguga, bese kuthi laba abaphakathi nendawo basinde. Kodwa umkhuhlane wase-Spainn waubulala kakhulu abantu abasha.[28] Umkhuhlane wase-Spain wabulala abantu abaningi ukudlula impi yomhlaba yokuqala i-World War I yona eyathu ngamaviki angu-25 yabulala abantu abadlula abantu abalulawa ingculazi eminyakeni engu-25.[29][30] Ukuhamba ngamaqembu amakhulu kwamasosha kwadala kulempi kwadala ukuthi ukutheleleka kubhebheheke ngokushesha, ukutheleleka kalula kwamasosha kwadalwa ingcindezi yomqondo, ukungadli kahle nokudutshulwa ngamabhomu.[31] Ukuthuthukiswa kwezokuthutha kwadala ukuthi kube lula ukuthi amasosha nabanye bebhebhethekise lesi sifo.[32]

Izinkathazo ngamagciwane azayo[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Amagciwane angabulaleki[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Indaba egcwele: Antibiotic resistance

Amagciwane angabulaleki uma ehlaselwa ngesibulala magciwane abizwa ngokuthi “amagciwane anamandlakakhulu”. Lawa magciwane angadala ukuthi kulookhu kubuya izifo esezithotshisiwe.[33] Isibonelo, lapho khona isifo sofuba singayizweli imishayanguzo ejwayele ukusetshenziswa kudala inkinga enkulu kubalaphi. Isibalo sabantu abathola lesi sifo sofuba esibizwa nge- multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) sibalwa kuhhafu wemiliyoni emhlabeni wonke unyaka nonyaka.[34] Amazwe anezibalo eziphezulu zaloluhlobo lofuba iShayina neNdiya.[35] Isigungu sezempilo umhlaba wonke i-WHO ibika ukuthi abantu abatheleleka ngalesi sifo emahlabeni wonke balinganiselwa kumamiliyoni angu-50, amaphesentu angu-79 kulabo bantu anamagciwane ahlula izibulala magciwane ezimbili noma ezintathu kuyaphezulu. Ngonyaka kaa-2005 kubikwe ukuthi abathola i-MDR TB babengu-124 eMelika. Isifo sofuba esingalapheki ngemishayanguzo eminingi i-XDR TB yatholakala ezwenikazi lase-Afrika ngo-2006, kwase kutholakala ukuthi isemazweni angu-49 okubalwa kuwo iMelika. i-WHO ilinganisela ukuthi abantu abatheleleka nge XDR-TB bangu-40 000 ngonyaka.[36]

Eminyakeni engu-20 eyedlule amagciwane ajwayelekile okubalwa kuwo i-Staphylococcus aureus, Serratia marcescens ne-Enterococcus, asenamandla ukudlula izibulala magciwane ezithize ezifana ne-vancomycin nezinye ezifana neaminoglycosides kanye ne-cephalosporins. Amagciwane angabulaleki angumthelela omkhulu wokutheleleka kwabahlengikazi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukutheleleka okudalwa i-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) ebantwini abayimiqemane sekuvamile.

Izimfiva ezi-hemorrhagic[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Izimfiva ezi-hemorrhagic izifo eziyingozi ezithelelanayo. Izibonelo kubalwa kuzo i-Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease ne Bolivian hemorrhagic fever. Lezi zifo zinamathuba okuthi zingaba ubhubhane.[37] Into eyenza ukuthi zingabhebhetheku ngokushesha ukuthi zithelelana ngokuthi ube seduze kakhulu nomuntu ezimphethe, futhi lowo muntu uhlala isikhathi esifishane bese eyashona noma agule kakhulu. Lesi sikhathi esifishane sisiza abanhlengi ukuthi basheshe bamuvalele yedwa ogulayo bese engakwazi ukuthelela abanye.

Zika virus Igciwane iZika[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

Indaba ephelele: 2015–16 Zika virus epidemic, Zika virus, and Zika fever

Ukuqubuke kwegciwane iZika kwaqala ngo-2015 laba mandla kakhulu ekuqaleni kuka-2016, lapho okwase kunesibaloo esidlulile ku-1.5 wama miliyoni amazweni adlulile kwayishumi nambili emazweeni aseMelika. Inhlangano yezempilo umhlaba wonke(WHO) yakhipha isexwayiso esithi iZika kugenzeka ibhebhetheke umhlaba wonke uma ingakhalinywa.[38]

References[hlela | Hlela umthombo]

  1. Principles of Epidemiology, Third Edition (PDF). Atlanta, Georgia: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2012.
  2. Porta, Miquel, ed. (2008). Dictionary of Epidemiology. Oxford University Press. p. 179. ISBN 978-0-19-531449-6. Retrieved 14 September 2012.
  3. A. M., Dumar (2009). Swine Flu: What You Need to Know. Wildside Press LLC. p. 7. ISBN 978-1434458322.
  4. Wiles S. The three phases of Covid-19 and how we can make it manageable. TheSpinoff. Available at: https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/09-03-2020/the-three-phases-of-covid-19-and-how-we-can-make-it-manageable. Accessed on 10 April 2020
  5. See: https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/9789241580496/en
  6. ibid
  7. The 3 T’s model: Hitting the nail on the head, The Jordan times, April 2020 http://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/mohammad-majed-abufaraj/3-ts-model-hitting-nail-head.
  8. World Health Organisation March press briefing on Coronavirus , Reuters, 2020https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OdJrqYMXMXGX?t=49m58s
  9. "WHO HIV/AIDS Data and Statistics". Retrieved 12 April 2020
  10. Fact Sheet" (PDF). UNAIDS.org. 2018. Retrieved 12 December 2019.
  11. "UN AIDS DATA2019". UNAIDS.org. 2019. Retrieved 5 December 2019.
  12. McArdleColumnistBioBioFollowFollowColumnist, Megan McArdle closeMegan. "Opinion | When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn't". Washington Post. Retrieved 15 March 2020.
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  14. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU), accessed April 23rd 2020: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  15. "Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (Live statistics)". Worldometer. 2020. Retrieved 3 April 2020.
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  28. Gagnon A, Miller MS, Hallman SA, Bourbeau R, Herring DA, Earn DJ, Madrenas J (2013). "Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality". PLOS One. 8 (8): e69586. Bibcode:2013PLoSO...869586G. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069586. PMC 3734171. PMID 23940526.
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  37. Fears of Ebola pandemic if violent attacks continue in DR Congo". Al-Jazeera. 23 May 2019.
  38. "Zika virus could become 'explosive pandemic'". bbc.co.uk. 28 January 2016.